The researchers noted that limiting the temperature rise to two degrees Celsius rather than four degrees Celsius would halve the area at risk and potentially prevent a significant rise in sea level.
More than a third of Antarctica’s pack ice is at risk of collapsing into the sea if global temperatures reach four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to one study. The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that 34% of the area of all Antarctic ice shelves – about half a million square kilometers – of which 67% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s pack ice, would risk being destabilized in such a warming scenario.
The team also identified Larsen C – the largest remaining ice shelf on the peninsula, which split to form the massive A68 iceberg in 2017 – as one of four ice shelves that would be particularly threatened in a warmer climate.
“Ice shelves are important buffers that prevent land glaciers from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to sea level rise,” said Ella Gilbert of the University of Reading at UK. “When they collapse, it’s like a giant cork is pulled out of a bottle, allowing unimaginable amounts of water from the glaciers to flow into the sea,” Gilbert said.
The researchers noted that limiting the temperature rise to two degrees Celsius rather than four degrees Celsius would halve the area at risk and potentially prevent a significant rise in sea level. They noted that when the ice melted accumulates on the surface of ice shelves, it can cause them to fracture and collapse dramatically.
Previous research has given scientists the big picture in terms of predicting the decline of the Antarctic sea ice. However, the new study uses the latest modeling techniques to complete the finer details and provide more accurate projections. The study used state-of-the-art, high-resolution regional climate modeling to predict in more detail than before the impact of increased melt and runoff on sea ice stability.
“The results underscore the importance of limiting global temperature increases as outlined in the Paris Agreement if we are to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, including sea level rise,” Gilbert said. The team said the vulnerability of the pack ice due to this fracking process was predicted under scenarios of global warming of 1.5, 2 and 4 degrees Celsius, all of which are possible this century.
Ice shelves are permanent floating platforms of ice attached to areas of the coastline and form where glaciers flowing from the land meet the sea, they said. Researchers have identified the Larsen C, Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins ice shelves as most at risk under four degrees Celsius of warming, due to their geography and the heavy runoff expected in these areas.
“If temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, we could lose more Antarctic ice shelves in the decades to come,” Gilbert added.
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