The BJP and its allies are likely to retain Assam and gain only Union territory from Pondicherry – which is up for the next round of elections with four key states, a set of opinion polls show was released on Wednesday evening. The elections begin on March 27.
Only one public opinion poll was carried out in Pondicherry, which predicts that the BJP will emerge victorious with 21 of the 30 seats in the Assembly. Nine will go to the UPA which ruled Pondicherry before coming under the president’s regime, C-Voter predicted.
For the BJP, the biggest prize in this round is Bengal, where it hopes to win more than 200 of the 294 assembly seats.
An aggregate of four opinion polls indicates that the state will have a blocked assembly. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, who has led the state for two consecutive terms, is likely to win just 135 seats – up from the 211 seats won in 2016.
The BJP, which won just three seats last time around, is likely to win 138 – a huge gain but below the majority bar of 148. The Left and Congress, who have teamed up for this crucial election, will get only 20 seats, the figures predict.
Only one opinion poll, the C-Voter, predicted a victory for the Trinamool Congress, but with a very narrow margin of 160 seats. The People’s Pulse predicted an outright victory for the BJP with 183 seats.
An aggregate of two opinion polls predict a change of guard in Tamil Nadu, currently led by AIADMK, which has retained its alliance with the BJP for this round of elections. Opposition MP Stalin’s DMK and Congress are likely to come to power with 144 seats, aggregate opinion polls show. The NDA will likely win only 85 seats in the 234-member assembly, where the majority stands at 118.
An upheaval is also expected in Kerala, which has a tradition of eliminating the incumbent.
Only one opinion poll was carried out in Kerala. The C-Voter predicted that the ruling Left Democratic Front will remain in power with 77 of the state’s 140 seats. The margin will be slim, with the majority rating at 71.
In Assam, the BJP-led government will remain in power, predicts an aggregate of two opinion polls. C-Voter and TV9 both gave the NDA a majority – the total is 71, well above the majority of 64. The UPA is likely to win 53 seats, the numbers indicate.