NEW DELHI: The BJP should win the West Bengal assembly election by absolute majority if it is to wrest power from Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, led by Trinamool Congress (TMC). Otherwise, it might have to sit in the opposition even if it emerges as the biggest party in case the current elections throw an assembly on hold.
There are three scenarios in West Bengal. Either the TMC or the BJP wins the election by absolute majority or there is a suspended assembly.
The formation of the government would go smoothly if one of the two parties crossed the magic number of 147 in the assembly of 294 members. The TMC would not have much problem forming government if it became the largest party in a suspended assembly.
In the case of a suspended assembly, the TMC is much better placed than the BJP. Mamata can get support from Congress and left-wing parties. Congressman Lok Sabha and State President Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has already indicated to this effect.
“Politics is the art of the possible,” Chowdhury said on April 7, quoting famous 19th-century German leader Bismarck, when asked if Congress would support Mamata if his party did not have a majority in the vote. elections to the Assembly.
However, the BJP is not in the same advantageous position as the TMC in forging a post-election alliance in West Bengal. Neither Congress nor leftist parties would likely come forward to support the BJP.
The situation in West Bengal is similar to the scenario that emerged after the announcement of the results of the elections to the Karnataka Assembly in 2018. The elections, which took place with 222 seats, threw an assembly into suspension.
At 104, the BJP won the most seats, followed by Congress (78) and JD (S) 37.
Although the governor invited BS Yediyurappa to form the government, he failed to prove a majority on home soil as neither Congress nor the JD (S) committed to support him.
HD Kumaraswamy of JD (S) later formed the government with support from Congress.
A similar scenario had emerged at the national level during the 1996 elections in Lok Sabha. In a suspended Parliament, the BJP was the largest party winning 161 seats while Congress followed by winning 140 seats.
BJP’s Atal Bijhari Vajpayee formed the government. However, failing to gain majority support, he resigned before taking the ground test.
The BJP in West Bengal could face a similar problem if it fails to win a majority.
Starting from scratch, the party slowly managed to become the main opposition in the state, replacing both the CPI (M) and Congress who had ruled the state until Mamata’s TMC defeated the left in 2011 and retains power in 2016.
In the 2016 West Bengal Assembly election, the BJP won just three seats while the TMC was victorious in 211. The ruling left and Congress, who then fought as the alliance partners, won 76 seats. Congress won 44 seats, CPI (M) 26, RSP 3, Forward Block 2 and the CPI 1 seat.
The BJP dramatically improved its tally in the 2019 legislative elections. Of Lok Sabha’s 42 total seats, the BJP won 18 while the TMC 22 and Congress pocketed the other 2.
If the 2019 Lok Sabha election results are translated into assembly segments, the BJP led in 121 of the 294 assembly segments while the TMC in 164 and Congress in 9 segments.
In 2014, the TMC had won 34 seats while the BJP and the Left Front managed to win only 2 seats each. Congress won 4 seats.
The BJP has come a long way since 2014. Its hopes of forming a government may bear fruit if it wins an absolute majority. However, a suspended assembly may end its dreams of coming to power in the Eastern State for the first time.